Friday, August 3, 2007

Iran’s Looming Battle: Who Will Succeed Meshkini?

Alireza Nourizadeh of Asharq Al-Awsat reports on possible successor to Ayatollah Meshkini.  A large crowd of Hezbollah supporters, prominent figures from the Iranian Islamic regime, clerics and hawza [Shia religious seminary] students gathered at the Shahid-Motahhari School (formerly Sepahsalar School before the revolution) last Tuesday morning for the funerary procession of the head of the Iranian Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Ali Meshkini (84 years old).

Meshkini was also the Friday prayer Imam in the city of Qom, Iran’s religious capital. But the absence of Sheikh Ali Akbar Feyz, popularly known as Ayatollah Meshkini at this time is considered a serious blow to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies. The late head of the Council of Experts was the one responsible for bestowing an aura of holiness around Ahmadinejad after he took power.

On the eve of his assumption of the presidential post, Meshkini delivered a speech that surprise many in which he said that Imam al Zaman (the Mehdi or the Hidden Imam among Shia believers) had voted for Ahmedinejad, and that in turn, the president had consulted the Imam before selecting the candidates for his government.

Ayatollah Ali Meshkini was born in 1923 in a deserted village in the town of Meshkin-Shahr in the province of Azerbaijan. His father used to sing religious songs in the Shia gatherings held in the surrounding villages, in addition to working in a house that belonged to one of the landowners of the area.

This landowner was very generous towards Meshkini’s father, sending Ali, the son, to school with his own son. Moreover, when he found out that the father was yearning to visit Karbala, he gave him money to travel to Iraq, sending with him the remains of his father’s body whose dying wish was to be buried in the Nejev’s Wadi al Salam cemetery.

It was later recounted by Meshkini that his parents headed towards Iraq in an abandoned Russian military car that had been left behind in Iraq after World War I. Throughout the journey, which lasted two weeks, Ali Meshkini was shaking with fear because of the wooden coffin containing the remains of the old man was placed above his head.

Upon arrival to Iraq, they buried the remains of the body in Wadi al Salam cemetery, and the family settled in Negev. Meshkini’s father attended the classes of the most distinguished clerics of the time, including Shirazi, Shahrudi and al Hakim.

Accompanied by his father, Ali Meshkini attended the religious seminaries where he studied Quran, the principles of ‘fiqh’ (Islamic jurisprudence) and the recitation of religious songs.

Upon returning to his hometown, the 16-year-old followed in his father’s footsteps and toured the villages to recite the religious songs. A few years later, the young Ayatollah Meshkini went to Qom to resume his religious studies. There, he attended the classes of the late Grand Ayatollah and marja’a [highest echelons of Shia religious authority] Muhammad Hussein Burujerdi; Ayatollah Mohaqiq Damad and Ayatollah Kazem Shariatmadari.

However, the compelling fact remains that the late Meshkini never returned the favor to Shariatmadari, despite having being taken under his tutelage and also receiving a monthly allowance from him, owing to the ayatollah’s stature. And yet, when Ayatollah Meshkini assumed the chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts after the revolution, he appointed his son-in-law, Muhammad Muhammadi Reyshahri, as the Minister of Intelligence (and before that as the prosecutor of the Special Court for the Clergy) while simultaneously launching a campaign against Shariatmadari. Meshkini called for the removal of Shariatmadari’s title and clerical status.

Montazeri was ousted at the end of Ayatollah Khomeini’s era as a result of his protest against the execution campaign that Iran witnessed after the end of the war with Iraq. Participants in the aforementioned plot included Meshkini, Reyshahri, Ahmed Khomeini and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Meshkini’s dream was fulfilled after he succeeded Montazeri as head of the Assembly of Experts, and moreover, in the elevated position of the Imam for the Friday prayers in Qom. Ayatollah Meshkini was appointed as the chairman of the Assembly of Experts in its third session for a period that lasted over 20 years.

It is worth mentioning that a contributing factor to Meshkini’s rise to power, apart from his betrayal of Shariatmadari and his involvement in the plot to overthrow Montazeri, was his decision to hand over one of his sons (who was in one of the oppositional groups) to the Islamic Revolution persecutor in Evin prison. The son was put on trial and sentenced to execution; however the sentence was reduced to a lifetime of imprisonment at the orders of Khomeini.

Meshkini’s absence means that the arena is now open for the battle to fill his seat. Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts is considered Iran’s highest legal authority, as it reserves the power to appoint, oversee, and if necessary, dismiss the Supreme Leader.

However, the picture could change dramatically if Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is more fortunate that others, is selected to fill Meshkini’s seat. It seems that Khamenei still wields full control over that matter and reserves the authority to prevent Rafsanjani from attaining the seat.

According to inside sources, Khamenei does not favor Rafsanjani nor Misbah Yazdi, but rather is more inclined towards Mahmoud Hashemi Shahrudi, the head of Iran’s judiciary.

Furthermore, sources close to Rafsanjani say that the campaigns launched against him lately over the past few months, especially led by the articles published on the websites of Ahmedinejad’s allies, have far surpassed the red line labeling Rafsanjani as the ‘Godfather’ and the ‘head of a mafia’ and saying that his sons spread ‘mischief on the land’.

Such campaigns aim at eliminating Rafsanjani from the circle of power, along with Khatami and Karroubi. Those behind these campaigns will not allow Rafsanjani to reach this seat, which could be a ladder up to the peak, which is Wilayat al Faqih [Guardianship of the Jurists].

This battle, according to sources, is expected to be difficult and possibly bloody in which the winner will emerge as the future leader of Iran.

According to media sources, Meshkini’s duties will be carried out by First Deputy Chairman, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, with the assistance of the presidium, until a new chairman is appointed. The tentative date for the session is expected to be some time after August 23.

Posted by Editors at 22:51:27 | Permalink | No Comments »

Two Years Into Term, Ahmadinejad Grapples With Economy

Radio Farda’s Niusha Boghrati reports. Two years have passed since the former hard-line mayor of Tehran, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, came to power on a pledge to improve the economic conditions for Iran’s citizens.Yet many believe that the economy has in the past two years revealed itself as the Iranian president’s Achilles heel.

“Iran’s economy is currently moving just on the edge of a collapse,” Paris-based economics professor Fereydoon Khavand tells Radio Farda. “Ahmadinejad’s decisions have led to economic chaos in the country. At present, nobody knows which direction Iran’s economy is heading or what the country’s economic goals are.”

Since Ahmadinejad’s inauguration on August 6, 2005, the Islamic establishment has taken a tougher line on a number of domestic and international issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.

Affecting Lives

But for many low income Iranians, it is the worsening economic situation that has most affected their lives.

In contrast to the previous reformist administration — which had made international relations and civil-society values a priority — Ahmadinejad won major support from economic promises, with the best-known among them his vow to “bring the petroleum income on people’s tables” accompanied by a campaign motto promising that “It’s possible, and we can do it.”

Yet critics say the pledge to battle poverty with which Ahmadinejad initially began his presidency has gone unfulfilled.

Economist Fereidun Khavand believes the reason for the “chaotic” economic situation is that the president “shifted the circle of economic decision-making from the Ministry of Finance and Economics, the Planning and Management Committee, and the Iranian Central Bank to the presidential administration solely.”

Among the tensions that Ahmadinejad’s government has encountered in the first half of its term, it has been economical dissatisfaction that has provoked major and widespread protests and challenged his policies.

Protests for workers’ unpaid salaries, nationwide teacher protests over low wages, and eventually protests against gasoline rationing in the country resulting in burned-out gas stations — these have emerged as the greatest symptoms of friction confronting President Ahmadinejad.

Occasional Eruptions

Within the general population, sharp price rises and a lower standard of living in Iran under Ahmadinejad’s administration have made his policies unpopular. In recent months, a number of significant protests and strikes by workers and employees over low or unpaid wages have been reported in Iran.

Perhaps the most vivid example of unrest came in the form of well-attended protests and demonstrations organized by Iranian teachers in March and April 2007 to call for higher wages.

The protests were confronted by the government, and hundreds of teachers across the country were arrested and detained.

“How I, my wife, and my two kids are supposed to live on 220,000 tomans ($240) a month when rent for our apartment alone is 180,000 tomans ($200) a month?” one of the protesting teachers who was arrested and spent a day in detention asked. ” Where is the oil money that the government was supposed to distribute equally?” another protesting teacher in Eslamshahr asked, according to ILNA.

In two years of Ahmadinejad leadership, what critics have described as a “mishandling of the economic administration” has led to a sharp rise in the inflation rate, resulting in an unprecedented increase in prices across the country.

While the government says the inflation rate is currently between 12 and 13 percent, sources like Iran’s Parliament Research Center indicate that the number is up around 20 percent.

Nevertheless “even an inflation rate of 12 percent is still far above the inflation rates of all other countries in the region, with the exception of Palestine and Iraq,” Khavand says.

Slippery Slope

Khavand attributes Iran’s economic problems to Ahmadinejad’s disruption of international relations with the outside world, which he says have led international investors to look elsewhere than Iran. “Today, Ahmadinejad only manages the country on a day-to-day basis with the help of oil revenues,” Khavand tells Radio Farda.

An open letter signed by 57 economists from around the country and issued in June lambasted Ahmadinejad’s economic policies and accused him of “ignoring the basic principles of economy.” The university professors warned in the letter that “government mismanagement is inflicting a huge cost on the economy and underscore that high oil revenues over the last two years can only delay the imminent economic crisis.”

That crisis was not long in coming. On June 26, angry Iranians attacked several gas stations to protest the government’s suddenly imposition of long-threatened new limits fuel rationing. The Oil Ministry announced the start of the new rationing regime just three hours before it was due to begin at midnight, and the rush of the car owners seeking one last chance to fill up appeared to spark the violence.

According to the head of the Council of Gas Station Owners, Nasser Raisifar, at least five gas stations were totally destroyed in blazes set by angry motorists in Tehran. Many other gas stations were seriously damaged in the capital without being completely destroyed.

The new rationing plan allows the owners of private automobiles just 100 liters of heavily subsidized gas per month. Taxi drivers are allowed 800 liters a month at the subsidized price.

Gasoline is sold at a price of around 1,000 rials ($0.11) per liter in Iran, about one-fifth of its actual cost.

Iran is the second-largest exporter of crude oil among Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). But its low refining capacity means it has had to import more than half of the gasoline it consumes. To keep prices low, the government subsidizes gasoline sales, saddling it with enormous costs.

Costly Mistakes?

Critics concede that escalating gasoline prices and tighter rationing were theoretically a necessary step for Iran, but they say the timing and mechanism for implementation were inexpertly handled.

“Was it a proper move? The answer is yes. But was it a moral move? Definitely no!” Parviz Mina, an energy expert tells Radio Farda. “In a period when the country suffers from a sick economy, when people cannot afford daily living, and when wages are delayed for months, economic morality surpasses theory — especially for one of the top energy resources in the entire world.”

The new rationing also sparked an overnight increase in already high prices for related and unrelated goods, from taxi fares to cigarettes to foodstuffs.

“The prices of meat, beans, rice, and fruit went up,” Peyman Pakmehr a journalist based in Tabriz, told Radi Farda less than 24 hours after the new rationing kicked in. “When people ask shopkeepers why, they say it was because of the rise in gasoline prices.” According to official government reports, 12 percent of the population in Iran lives under the poverty line; some skeptics think the true figure is much higher.

Ahmadinejad has defended his economic policies and called on his critics to offer practical solutions. His government has accused the media of exaggerating economic problems.

The Iranian president has on his numerous provincial trips sought to associate with the masses of the lower economic classes, but some observers think that what they describe as Ahmadinejad’s “economic failure ” has led to a decrease in his popularity.

“We all welcomed him to town cheerfully and with open arms when Mr. Ahmadinejad came to Semnan,” a Radio Farda listener said in a message left days after the launch of the new gasoline rationing. “That, he can be sure, would never happen again!”

Posted by Editors at 22:38:47 | Permalink | No Comments »

Europe warns US on Iran sanctions

European governments are warning Congress that US legislation aimed at Iran could hit European energy groups, undermine transatlantic unity on Tehran’s nuclear programme and provoke a dispute at the World Trade Organisation. Diplomats from France, Germany and the UK, among other countries,

have stepped up a lobbying campaign on Capitol Hill against moves that would mandate sanctions on energy companies that invested more than $20m (€14.6m, £9.9m) in Iran. Among such companies – already marked out by a US campaign to disinvest in energy companies that trade with Iran – are Royal Dutch Shell, Total of France and Repsol of Spain.

Royal Dutch Shell and Repsol, which are both looking for oil in US territorial waters in the Gulf of Mexico, are involved in a project worth up to $10bn to produce Iran’s first liquefied natural gas. The companies are due to take a final decision about their investment in 2008.

“It’s paradoxical that the targets of this effort are companies from countries that are making an effort to strengthen sanctions against Iran,” said one European diplomat, referring to the European Union’s support for a new wave of United Nations sanctions on Iran.

“The House of Representatives will decide on this bill some time this autumn so you have to try to talk to everybody [in Congress],” said another EU diplomat. “We are telling them that if it became a law as it stands now, it would be a breach in WTO rules and we would not accept that.”

President George W Bush has the power to waive sanctions on third parties doing business with Iran, but a bill introduced by Tom Lantos, chairman of the House foreign affairs committee, would remove his ability to do so. The bill has 322 co-sponsors, enough to overcome a presidential veto.

Diplomats stress that a parallel bill being considered by the Senate would leave Mr Bush’s waiver intact while seeking to introduce other measures against Iran.

But European officials say they are unsure what would emerge from efforts to hammer out a deal between the House of Representatives and the Senate and are worried that it could make some sanctions mandatory.

“Which do we fear more?” asked Jon Kyl, Republican senator from Arizona, last week. “A trade dispute with Europe or China or what Tehran will do with the revenues of a fully reconstituted energy sector?”

In principle the Iran Sanctions Act, a successor to a 1990s measure, requires the president to impose at least two out of six possible sanctions on foreign companies investing more than $20m in Iran, although in practice both Mr Bush and former President Bill Clinton have always exercised the waiver.

These sanctions include denial of Export Import Bank loans, denial of US bank loans exceeding $10m, prohibition of US government procurement and restrictions on imports from the company concerned.

This week, the House of Representatives backed a separate piece of legislation, that would oblige the federal government to keep a record of energy companies violating the $20m threshold and make it easier for state pension funds to disinvest in them.

Some states have passed or are considering legislation to move towards disinvestment in such companies.

Public sector pension funds such as Calpers and Calstrs, the giant California pension plans, are opposed to any forced divestments of companies involved in Iran. They have argued the move would be counterproductive as it would hurt their returns and restrict their ability to provide for billions of dollars in pension liabilities.

Caution has been urged from unexpected quarters. “If we go forward and we begin to sanction foreign companies through more stringent sanctions in the Iran Sanctions Act, I think there will be serious repercussions for our multilateral effort,” said Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute, the conservative Washington think-tank.

Posted by Editors at 05:29:23 | Permalink | No Comments »

Gates ends Mideast tour with call for pressure on Islamic Republic of Iran

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates ended a Middle East tour on Thursday with an appeal to key Arab states to join the United States in stepping up pressure on Iran to end its nuclear programme.Gates said measures to enforce UN financial and trade sanctions were one avenue to squeeze Iran, but he also explored ideas for expanded military cooperation during three days of talks in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

“Iran is actively engaged right now in activities that are contrary to the interests of most of the countries, virtually all of the countries, that we just visited as well as the United States, as well as Iraq,” he said.

“We just can’t wait years for them to try to change their policies,” he told reporters as he flew back to Washington from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

It was unclear how much headway Gates made on Iran.

Friction with Saudi Arabia over US policy in Iraq stole the headlines when Gates and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made a joint visit to Jeddah on Wednesday.

Gates and Rice also tried to deal with uncertainties in the region over whether and under what conditions the United States will withdraw its forces from Iraq.

They earlier visited Egypt together. Gates then went to Kuwait and the UAE, while Rice headed for Jerusalem and Ramallah to lay the groundwork for a Middle East peace conference called by Washington for later this year.

The United States suffered another setback in Iraq on Wednesday with the withdrawal of the main Sunni Arab bloc from the US-backed government in Baghdad.

“What this was about was beginning a dialogue with our friends and partners in the region about both Iraq and Iran on the one hand, and long-term interests and security on the other,” Gates said.

“And partly as a result of the debates in Washington over the last several months, to reassure them that the United States is going to be a major power and major presence in this region for a long time to come,” he said.

Asked the reaction of the leaders he met, Gates said: “Without being country specific, in terms of concern with Iran, there was no difference of opinion.

“The more countries in the world that cooperate in the UN sanctions, and in bringing pressures to bear on this government, that its policies are antithetical to the interests of all of its neighbours, the better off we’ll be,” he said.

“That was basically our message… We’ll need to work together,” he said. “There is not really room for bystanders here.”

A senior US defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Gates’s counterparts appeared intrigued by some of his ideas for expanding military cooperation.

The Saudis indicated they were prepared to go forward with a 20 billion dollar US arms package designed to counter what Washington sees as a growing threat from Iran, officials said.

Specifics of the Saudi package have not been disclosed, but the categories of weapons include missile defence and early warning systems, air defence and air power.

Delivery of the weapons would be spread out over 10 years.

Gates also sounded out his counterparts about US ideas for expanded cooperation in areas such as missile defence, maritime security and crisis management, officials said.

He also suggested holding more multilateral exercises in the Gulf, they said, although nothing like a formal military alliance was contemplated.

The senior US defence official said that while the Gulf Arab monarchies were concerned about Iran’s nuclear programme, none saw the threat as immediate.

“We have a given period of time,” the official said, adding that the Iranians “are working away at it.”

Other components of a multi-billion-dollar arms bonanza for Washington’s allies in the region discussed during the tour include pacts worth 13 billion dollars for Egypt, 30 billion dollars for Israel and reportedly at least 20 billion dollars for Gulf states other than Saudi Arabia.

Source: AFP

Posted by Editors at 05:20:03 | Permalink | No Comments »